ECONOMIC FACTORS, SOCIAL STRAINS, AND RECIDIVISM TENDENCY: THE MEDIATING ROLE OF CRIMINAL BEHAVIOR AMONG PRISONERS IN LAHORE DIVISION, PAKISTAN

Abstract

The study examines the associations among economic factors, social strains, criminal behavior, and recidivism tendency among 370 convicted male prisoners in Lahore Division, Pakistan. Grounded in Becker’s Theory of Crime and Agnew's General Strain Theory, the study tests whether criminal behavior mediates the associations of economic factors and social strains with recidivism tendency. Data were collected through a structured questionnaire and analyzed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM). The measurement model displayed satisfactory reliability and validity. All five hypothesized direct associations were statistically significant, while criminal behavior partially mediated both pathways to recidivism tendency. The model explained 36.6% of the variance in criminal behavior and 52.9% in recidivism tendency, although PLSpredict indicated limited out-of-sample predictive performance. The findings support an integrated correctional approach addressing economic disadvantages, social pressures, behavioral patterns, and reintegration.